Articles tagged Midday

Natural gas futures nosedived Thursday after the market received bearish government inventory data and looming autumn weather presented the likelihood of fading cooling demand. Spot prices fell in tandem.

August natural gas futures were on track for their seventh straight loss through midday trading Wednesday after the latest in-line weekly storage injection was accompanied by a bearish revision to the previous week.

August natural gas futures fell below key support through midday trading Monday as weather forecasts trimmed demand outlooks and Lower 48 gas output rose to a new three-month high.

The latest reported storage build matched most expectations, but provided no definitive directional support as natural gas futures vacillated between modest losses and gains in midday trading on Friday.

After the latest weekly storage injection overshot estimates and wiped out earlier gains, July natural gas futures were trading modestly higher through midday Thursday.

Natural gas futures were gaining back a modest chunk of their pre-holiday losses through midday trading Tuesday, supported by warm-leaning forecasts and strengthening export demand.

Natural gas futures flipped to gains and losses through midday trading Friday as the market weighed opposing LNG factors. For bears, interruptions to work at the Golden Pass liquefied natural gas project fed speculation about potential delays, while bulls cheered Freeport starting up a third train.

Natural gas futures remained modestly higher at the front of the curve through midday trading Tuesday as prices continued to draw support from a relatively cool forecast and flagging production. Meanwhile, West Texas spot prices remained on the wrong side of zero.

• Soft near-term fundamentals keeping pressure on natural gas futures at the front of the curve through midday trading
• April Nymex contract down 3.7 cents to $1.677/MMBtu as of 1:56 p.m. ET; May off 2.9 cents at $1.794
• LNG export demand down to 12.6 Bcf/d in latest Wood Mackenzie estimates
• Deliveries to Freeport well below capacity at 746,514 Dth for Wednesday, per NGI’s LNG Export Tracker
• Sixth straight surplus-padding storage report expected from U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Thursday
• NGI modeling light 3 Bcf withdrawal, versus 87 Bcf five-year average pull
• At 2,334 Bcf, Lower 48 inventories already 257 Bcf above maximum of 2019-2023 range as of March 1, EIA data show
• Global Forecast System seen trending colder in midday run by showing “less pronounced warmer break” March 20-24, per NatGasWeather
• Better agreement from Euro model “would make the eight- to 15-day forecast period neutral, if not slightly bullish, instead of bearish,” according to NatGasWeather
• Heavy discounts in cash market as Henry Hub plummets 27.5 cents day/day to $1.240, a more than 40-cent discount to Nymex front month, per NGI’s MidDay Price Alert
• Much of eastern United States expected to “enter an extended period of very warm and pleasant weather,” National Weather Service said Wednesday
• Henry Hub day-ahead low of $1.190 would take out $1.200 nadir recorded on October 2, 2020, according to historical Daily Gas Price Index data
• Current Henry Hub cash even weaker versus 2020 lows when adjusting for inflation; prior low of $1.200 would equal $1.430 in 2024 based on Consumer Price Index

• Natural gas futures headed for large sell-off Friday as midweek rally fizzles on blowtorch temps
• March Nymex contract down 12.7 cents to $1.605/MMBtu as of 2:20 p.m. ET, near pre-rally levels prior to Chesapeake Energy Corp. releasing production guidance
• Heating demand over next 15 days “would rank among some of the warmest late February and early March periods dating back to 1950,” Maxar meteorologist Brad Harvey said during a briefing on Enelyst Friday
• Per Harvey: “The warmest lows early next week are more akin to mid-May than late February”
• Cash prices tumble for weekend and Monday delivery aside from gains in Northeast and Appalachia, NGI’s MidDay Price Alert shows
• Henry Hub slides to $1.520, off 8.5 cents day/day and discounted roughly 8.0 cents versus Nymex front month
• National Weather Service predicting “light snow” over next few days for portions of Northern New England and areas of the Upper Midwest to Central Appalachians
• Northeast Regional Avg. rallies 70.5 cents to $2.450; upstream in Appalachia, Texas Eastern M-3, Delivery jumps 10.5 cents to $1.450, according to MidDay Price Alert