Mexico’s natural gas production continued to surprise in November, rising to 4.431 Bcf/d from 3.872 Bcf/d in the same month last year.
Production was also up considerably compared to the 4.04 Bcf/d in October, according to the latest data from upstream regulator Comisión Nacional de Hidrocarburos (CNH).
Production averaged 4.079 Bcf/d through the first eleven months of this year, a year that has been marked by steadily increasing production. As a result, pipeline imports from the United States haven’t experienced the growth seen in previous years.
Mexico imported 83% of its total natural gas needs in August, usually its highest demand period, CNH said. This figure was down from 91% in August of 2021.
November’s natural gas production figure is the highest since the start of the government of Andrés Manuel López Obrador in 2018. The current consistent uptick in production is the first real growth spurt since the precipitous fall that began in 2009, when natural gas production peaked at 6.534 Bcf/d.
Still, Mexico’s own forecasts don't show production returning to those lofty heights.
CNH said recently that even in the most bullish production scenario, it sees output peaking at 4.73 Bcf/d in 2026. Analysts are also predicting a slowdown in oil production growth in Mexico for next year. Given the high percentage of associated gas in Mexico, this would have a knock-on effect on natural gas.
Associated gas production was 2.636 Bcf/d in November. Non-associated gas added the remaining 1.795 Bcf/d, according to CNH.
Petróleos Mexicanos, aka Pemex, accounted for 95% of natural gas production in November, or 4.191 Bcf/d. Private sector operators added 241 Bcf/d.
Production of natural gas has been spurred by Pemex’s so-called priority fields, some of which have proven to be gas-rich. Quesqui was the leading field in November, at 582 Bcf/d. Next was Akal (512 MMcf/d) and Ixachi (300 MMcfd/), both onshore fields in the southeast. The offshore fields Maloob (286 MMcf/d) and Ku (211 MMcf/d) rounded out the top five.
Oil Production Up, Too
Oil production was also up in November, reaching 1.860 million b/d. This was compared to 1.804 million b/d in November of last year, and 1.854 million b/d in October.
Pemex oil production was 1.757 million b/d. Private sector operators supplied 103,000 b/d to the market. The mature, offshore Maloob (272,000 b/d) and Zaap (225,000 b/d) fields were the largest producers in November. They were followed by Quesqui (161,000 b/d), Ayatsil (92,000 b/d) and Xanab (71,000 b/d).
In its latest oil market report, OPEC forecasted that Mexico liquids production would decline by 29,000 b/d next year, principally due to decline in Pemex’s mature fields. This is projected to outweigh production ramp-ups from Mexico’s foreign-operated fields.
Private sector oil trade group Amexhi has said that without a resumption of bid rounds, oil production will stagnate.
Amexhi vice president Andrés Brügmann said in October, “we are in a pivotal moment, since in the coming years the exploration and appraisal periods will conclude” for the roughly 100 upstream contracts that were awarded under the previous government.
If bid rounds do not resume, “the benefits that the industry has generated will be substantially reduced,” warned Brügmann.
