If elected, Mexican presidential candidate Claudia Sheinbaum would seek to increase the country’s renewable electricity generation to as much as 50% of the national grid by the conclusion of her term in 2030, industry members familiar with the plans told NGI’s Mexico GPI.
The ambitious goal for renewable energy generation would represent a dramatic shift in policy from the current administration of Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who has favored hydrocarbons production by the state-owned oil producer Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) and constructed a multi-billion dollar refinery as one his administration’s landmark projects.
In comments made to members of the Mexican Solar Energy Association (Asolmex) and the Mexican Wind Energy Association (Amdee) recently, the leaders of Sheinbaum’s energy team announced the 50% renewables generation goal.
In 2022, Mexico generated 31% of its electricity total with “clean energy” sources, which includes renewable and non-renewable power such as nuclear and efficient natural gas cogeneration, according to the Energy Ministry (Sener). An estimated 35% of the country’s electricity is expected to be generated by clean power this year, according to the ministry. It is unclear if efficient cogeneration natural gas power is part of Sheinbaum’s 50% figure.
Mexico is currently building 12 natural gas-fired power plants with a total capacity of as much as 7 GW.
The renewable goals for Sheinbaum’s administration were announced by the leaders of her energy team, which is headed by Jorge Marcial Islas, lead researcher of the Renewable Energy Institute at Mexico’s Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM), and Victor Rodríguez, an UNAM energy specialist, sources told NGI’s Mexico GPI.
Following the presentation by Islas and Rodríguez to Asolmex and Amdee, Sheinbaum spoke to members of the American Society of Mexico where she explained that, if elected, her administration would prioritize an orderly and reasonable energy transition, though didn’t repeat the 50% goal, sources said.
“A few days ago in Asolmex and Amdee, we had our first conversation of 2024 with Dr. Jorge Islas and Dr. Víctor Rodriguez of the ‘Keep Making History’ Coalition,” Asolmex President Carla Medina wrote in a LinkedIn post on Jan. 15.
Medina explained that there were three main conclusions from the meeting, which included that Mexico’s economy and environment needs an accelerated energy transition fueled by renewable sources for 2030, that the country’s decarbonization goals would require private and public sector investment, and that achieving these objectives will require permanent dialogue among sector members.
“Asolmex is ready to contribute in these public policy discussions to activate Mexico’s decarbonization efforts in the immediate future,” Medina wrote. “In the upcoming days, we will have similar meetings with the other campaign teams that are participating in the 2024 elections.”
Mexico’s presidential elections are scheduled for June 2. In her campaign and political ads, Sheinbaum, the candidate for the Morena, Partido Verde Ecologista de México and the Partido del Trabajo coalition, has assured continuity of the López Obrador administration’s policies and the so-called fourth transformation of the country.
Sheinbaum is currently leading in polling for the elections.
Natural Gas: Transition Fuel
Sheinbaum’s main opponent in the general election, Xóchitl Gálvez of the Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI), Partido Acción Nacional (PAN) and Partido de la Revolución Democrática (PRD) coalition, has appointed Rosanety Barrios to lead her energy team.
Barrios, who spent 18 years at the Mexican Energy Ministry and Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE) and is a natural gas specialist, met with members of the Mexican Energy Association on Monday, where she explained that a Gálvez administration would prioritize energy security fueled by cleaner, cheaper sources, she wrote on X, formerly known as Twitter.
In December, Barrios told NGI’s Mexico GPI that the incoming government should reestablish a strict regulation for methane emissions, conduct a study of nationwide natural gas demand to determine if the current transportation infrastructure is sufficient, and improve the country’s storage capacity.
In 2022, 69% of Mexico’s electricity grid was powered by fossil fuels, mostly natural gas, according to Sener. In its 2023 report, Sener outlined plans to reduce the country’s reliance on natural gas, though it has been described as the transition fuel that Mexico will utilize as it aims to generate more electricity with renewable sources.
