Drilling permits in the natural gas-rich Marcellus, Utica and Haynesville shale plays showed strong month/month growth in December 2023 but remained 16% below the December 2022 total, according to the latest tally by Evercore ISI.
The three formations, which together supply about 53% of Lower 48 gas output, had a combined issued permit count of 359 in December 2023, versus 283 in November and 427 in December 2022.
The Marcellus permit total was 122, up from 107 in November but down from the year-earlier level of 189, said the Evercore team led by James West.
Of the three shale formations, the Utica was the only one to see both sequential and year/year growth.
Utica permits totaled 107 in December 2023, versus 63 in November and 25 in December 2022.
In the Haynesville, drilling permits totaled 130 in the last month of 2023. This was up from 113 in November but well off the December 2022 count of 213. Rig counts in the dry gas play have plunged over the last year amid weaker natural gas prices.
Onshore drilling permits in the Lower 48 overall rose 11% in December 2023 versus November, but remained well below December 2022 levels.
Permits totaled 2,843 for the month, up from 2,565 in November but down from 3,451 a year earlier, said the Evercore researchers.
The Permian Basin, which supplies about one-fourth of Lower 48 gas production, had the highest count by far at 1,213 permits, up from 940 in November and 1,189 in December 2022.
In the Rocky Mountain region, permitting dropped on both a sequential and year/year basis. Combined permits in the Denver-Julesburg/Niobrara, Powder River and Green River basins totaled 366 in December 2023, down from 533 in November and 407 in December 2022.
Bakken Shale permits rose to 72 in December from 58 in November, but were down from 129 in the year-earlier month.
In the Eagle Ford Shale, permits rose 5% month/month to 284 in December 2023, down from 451 in December 2022.
The natural gas-directed rig count, meanwhile, dropped by one unit week/week to 119 as of Friday (Jan. 26), Baker Hughes Co. data show. The overall domestic count rose by one rig to 621, driven by an uptick in the Permian.
The Energy Information Administration, for its part, is forecasting that total Lower 48 gas production will decline by 187 MMcf/d sequentially in February, with associated gas output growth from the Permian partially offsetting declining volumes from gassy plays.
