Updated Aug 30, 2024
8/30/24
Natural gas spot prices were lower in a week marked by declining demand expectations on the cusp of the fall shoulder season and a slower drawdown of storage surpluses that fed fresh concerns about the stubbornly high Lower 48 supply.
The natural gas market has tossed on a light sweater and officially turned the page on summer, sending prices lower across the forward curve, according to NGI’s Forward Look.
Natural gas futures seesawed in a narrow range of gains and losses for a second straight session on Wednesday. The prompt month hovered in the red by early afternoon trading as market participants weighed expectations for strong late-August cooling needs and bullish supply trends against expectations for retreating demand in the fall.
Demand in the crosshairs of the approaching fall held enough support Monday alongside signs of tighter supply to drive natural gas prices higher.
August natural gas futures pushed higher in early trading Monday as weather forecasts turned hotter and U.S. LNG exports were expected to quickly rebound after a 2 Bcf/d dip from Hurricane Beryl.
Coming off six straight lower sessions, August natural gas futures were wavering between gains and losses early Wednesday ahead of an expected light build in the weekly government inventory report.
Natural gas prices advanced in July bidweek trading as forecasts called for strong early summer heat to further intensify and cover more of the Lower 48 in the month ahead, offsetting rising production volumes and stout supplies in storage.
Drops in natural gas production, declining storage surpluses and stronger summer weather demand in the Lower 48 and abroad all line up in bulls’ favor. These factors could prop up prices through the cooling season and potentially longer, a cadre of analysts agreed this week.
June Nymex natural gas futures climbed with the mercury as hot weather supports cooling demand, driving prices to four-month highs.
A durable run higher for natural gas futures could take longer as technical indicators suggest bullish strength butting against fundamental pressures.